Apparently a vacation cruise turned into a nightmare for 4,500 passengers after a fire rendered the ship useless at sea for three days. Navy helicopters flew in rations of spam and pop tarts, and the toilets were not working. So the cruise line offered all passengers a refund and a free cruise. Of this offer one of the passengers said, “I’m a math person. What are the chances this would happen twice to the same person? I’m going with the odds. We’re from Vegas. We’re coming back.”
The question is this:
Should I buy a ticket for the cruise on which he will travel because then my chance of being waylaid will be smaller with him on board than if not?
Math people. From Vegas. Gambler’s fallacy win!
By the way, my wife smiled at this story and said it reminds her of when she used to prefer to park her car next to other cars that had visible accidental damage, because they would be the least likely to be smashed again.